Blackjack Strategy & Rules :
Card Counting in Blackjack -- why bother?
Michael
Shackleford is known as "The Wizard of Odds", due to his mathematical
analysis of many games of chance.
The Wizard of Odds
Let me say loud and clear that card counting is hard and is not as rewarding as television and the movies make it out to be. If it were an easy way to make money everyone would be doing it.
If you do not know the basic strategy trying to count cards is highly ill-advised. Experienced card counters still play by the basic strategy the great majority of the time. There can be no short cut around learning the basic strategy, those who attempt card counting without a firm foundation in the basic strategy are making a big mistake.
To be a successful counter you have to be able to count down a deck fast and memorize large tables of numbers as well as make it look like you're just a casual player. Furthermore, with today's rules, a realistic advantage the counter will have is only 0.5% to 1.5%. You will not win money slowly and gradually but your bankroll will go up and down like a roller coaster in the short run. Only in the long run over hundreds of hours of playing can you count on winning.
The underlying principle behind card counting is that a deck rich is tens and aces is good for the player, a deck rich in small cards is good for the dealer. The reason for this is complicated but to give just two examples: (1) Blackjacks are more common in ten and ace rich decks, which benefit the player more than the dealer. (2) The probability of busting a stiff hand is greater. The dealer is forced to hit a stiff hand and the player is not.
To gauge the richness of the deck in good cards the player will keep track of the cards the are already played. Strategies vary but all assign a point value to each card. For example the Ken Uston's Plus/Minus strategy assigns a value of +1 to 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7, and -1 to tens and aces. Everything else is 0, or neutral. At the beginning of a deck or shoe the count is 0. Then the counter constantly adds and subtracts from the count according to the cards played. This running total is called the "running count." A positive count means that a disproportional number of small cards have already been played which means the deck is rich in large cards. To determine the "true count" divide the running count by the number of decks left to be played, or in some strategies the number of half decks. This will tell you the relative richness of the deck in good cards.
The true count is used in two ways, to determine how much to bet and how to play your hand. Unless it is obvious every situation has a line in which you should play one way if the count is above the line and another if below. For example a 12 against a 6 may dictate that you stand if the true count is +1 or greater and hit if the true count is less than +1. The counter will also bet more when the deck is rich in good cards.
A problem arises when it comes to treating aces. The player should bet more when the deck is rich in aces since they add to the probability of getting a blackjack.
However, when it comes to playing your hand the number of aces left is not nearly as important as the number of tens, so it is desirable, but not necessary, to distinguish between tens and aces.
Some card counting strategies keep a side count of aces. In the Hi-Opt I and Revere Plus/Minus aces are counted separately and only considered when making the wager. This is a more accurate and powerful way to play than assigning a negative value to aces and not keeping a side count, as some strategies do. Yet many people feel that for the beginner it is too confusing to keep two counts. A player is more likely to make mistakes keeping two counts and that costs money.
The efficiency of a strategy that does not keep a side count of aces is only modestly less but you likely will gain more from fewer mistakes made. Different experts fall in various places in the spectrum in terms of what to recommend for the beginner. The Zen Count takes the middle ground and gives aces a value of -1 and tens -2. Personally I have tried both and would recommend against a count that requires a side count of aces to a person ready to take up card counting. The Uston Advanced Plus/Minus is a good strategy that does not involve an ace side count and can be found in the book Million Dollar Blackjack. How well you know a counting strategy is much more important that which strategy you know.
Legally speaking the player may play blackjack any way he wants without cheating or using a computer, and the casinos may do anything from making conditions unfavorable to barring in an effort to stop anyone who they deem has an advantage over the game.
Much of the challenge of card counting is avoiding suspicion that you are anything but a normal non-counting player. The most obvious indication that somebody is counting is that they make a substantial increase in bet size after a lot of small cards leave the table. Although the greater the factor by which you can increase your bet the greater your odds of winning, more than doubling your last bet is a fast way to arouse "heat" from the dealer and pit boss. Usually when casinos do realize you are counting they will either shuffle the cards whenever you increase your bet, essentially removing any advantage, or ask you to leave.
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